Here’s how big the Alabama-LSU game is.
The buildup has been as annoying as Super Bowl hype.
Thank God Dickie V doesn’t do college football. The more time you give TV people, the worse it gets.
LSU-Bama isn’t all that complicated, not at all.
It has nothing to do with emotion. They’ll be fired up.
It has nothing to do with Saban vs. Miles. They’re not playing, and they’re not changing much.
It has nothing to do with revenge. The first meeting was seemingly eight months ago. In fact, it was all of 66 days ago – more than two months ago - ago that they battled in the 3-point Bowl. A lifetime has passed.
It has nothing to do with being played 85 miles from LSU. The field measurement is the same, ticket distribution will be even, though it’s safe bet that a few more LSU fans will find tickets than Alabama fans.
It has nothing to do with playing somebody twice. A team makes adjustments and plays better than it did the first time, it wins. Or not.
There’s simply not that much to analyze, so fortunately, we have two months of redundancy.
The championship game will bear little resemblance to the first game. Well, the second half won’t. The first half probably will.
The teams are very evenly matched: great running games, unflashy quarterbacking, mesmerizingly good defenses (for those with the noggin to handle that) and playmakers.
They both have a Heisman finalist, and both programs have players on the roster who have a national championship ring.
One key is the passing game, and thus pass defense. Neither team passes for a boatload of yards, but both teams are efficient. The Tigers’ rating is 151.95, 18th, and the Tide’s rating is 144.35, 28th.
LSU’s Jordan Jefferson is more likely to make a decision blunder than Alabama’s A.J. McCarron, but he also gives defenses more to work on.
Alabama gets that edge.
The running game is really a draw. Trent Richardson is phenomenal, but LSU has depth with Spencer Ware, Michael Ford and Alfred Blue. They team for 161.33 yards, while Richardson is good for 131.92.
Ware is a brutal runner, not all that flashy. LSU can run a variety of stuff and a little more power, and wear down a defense a bit more.
LSU gets that edge.
And there are special teams contradictions.
LSU is only 54 on kickoff returns, and 10th in punt returns. Alabama is 24th on kickoff returns, 62nd in net punting. So Alabama returns kickoffs well, LSU covers punts much better.
Alabama has no counter to Tyrann Mathieu on special teams, and he can sucker McCarron into a mistake or two from the secondary, as can Morris Claiborne.
The Tide can do the same to Jefferson with Mark Barron, DeMarcus Milliner and Robert Lester.
A draw.
All this stuff, it comes down two things: fundamental tackling, and which offensive coordinator pulls the trigger and goes for the jugular.
If Alabama misses clear shots at Matthieu on returns, problem. If LSU has cracks at Richardson and whiffs, problem.
It will come in the second half, after a first half just like the whole first meeting. This one is different. There’s not another game until September. This is for a ring, not a division lead.
Sure, a mistake will be big, but mistakes mean nothing if not capitalized on. And LSU is first nationally in turnover margin, Alabama tied for 25th.
The Tigers are a little more athletic, and will certainly be looser. Not loose, since it’s the national championship game, it’s in New Orleans, and they’re playing Alabama.
But it just feels like the Tide can tighten up a bit more, courtesy of the genius raging on the sidelines.
The SEC championship game was an example. LSU trailed early, had no offensive success early, and didn’t blink. They waited for the big play, got the momentum, and threw the knockout punch in the second half. They knew what to expect, and had great confidence.
I don’t think that’s changed.
All this isn’t to say that they’re not even, not great teams, not elite defense, well-coached and powerful. They are. They’re just about even. And whoever loses is still a great team.
But the hunch here says the winner will score more than 20 points, will win by six, and wears purple and gold, with a 28-23 win.
CH-CH-CH-CHANGES
Has anybody seen Mark Richt and Mike Mularkey in the same stadium?
Atlanta, like Georgia, won’t reach the next level until there is a drastic change in the offensive philosophy.
We don’t know how good Matt Ryan is. They don’t let him throw deep. They have a basic passing game, wasting so many weapons.
And that is why you shouldn’t be surprised if Tony Gonzalez retires. He’ll see no changes coming, and no changes means no progress, which means no sniffing of a trophy.
Some offensive line changes are in order, but more than anything, 40 percent of the playbook – including all the current fourth-dowjn plays – need torching.
That it might be a season of change is indicated by defensive coordinator Brian Van Gorder taking off for Auburn.
He tied his longevity mark of four years at a job, and Auburn will be his ninth employer.
Yeah, it does say something. And moves are needed on defense, too, like admitting some personnel moves of the past few years haven’t worked out.
A THOUGHT
Mike Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel is one who didn’t mind the 9-6 first meeting.
“Don't get me wrong, I like seeing touchdowns as much as the next guy, but not when they become more common than Urban Meyer saying, "This is my dream job."
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