Cocktail Party not as lopsided as some think

            A few weeks ago, I was pickin' UGA over Florida, and with confidence and a clear conscience.

            The Dogs had a little something to 'em, a little swag, spring in the step, confidence/mild arrogance.

            Then South Carolina took them out back and hazed them. Schooled them. Showed what happens when you're overrated as a player.

            And Georgia, again, has overrated players, based on the asburd ratings of those who rate. Of course, they're overrated by those who sign and recruit them without the wise counsel of people outside of a small circle.

            Anywayyy ...

            Even after the Cluster in Columbia, I was picking Georgia, moreso because Florida just didn't do it for me. At all.

            The South Carolina game, how the Gators pulled away, something Georgia doesn't do much of, sort of was a swayer. And it took some work.

            I haven't been sold on Florida all season. The second half last week sold me more. Or, unsold me less.

            South Carolina was Santa Carolina in the first half, with 29 yards and two first downs for a 21-3 lead. All Florida pretty much had to do was, ya know, just be on the field and USCE was gonna give the Gators something.

            So it was an unearned 21-3 lead.

            We go to the second half and, well, it was less of the same of the first. But note this - and remember this today: Florida

            And taaaalk about your lamestream media: "The Gators held South Carolina to 191 yards ...
 while, yes, noting an unhealthy Marcus Lattimore.

            The story didn't mention that, um, them Gamecocks held them Gators to EIGHT FEWER YARDS and UF WAS HEALTHY.

            Ahem.

            ESPN tells us that "Florida had 183 yards of total offense but scored 44 points. They are the first FBS team this century to score 40 points while having fewer than 200 yards."

            So the Gamecocks racked up all of 1.4 yards a rush. A half yard less than Florida.

            USCE was penalized half as much, but goodness, had the ball 11 fewer minutes, had four turnovers and was out-third-downed 7/16 to 3/14. A draw in many areas.

            So, as we enter this game, Florida has the nation's No. 114 passing offense at 137.7 yards, No. 100 total offense at 350.43 yards, 54th scoring offense at 30.14 points, 105th in sacks allowed with three a game.

            Yes, the Gators have the a top 10 offense in rushing, pass efficiency defense, and No. 20 in pass yardage allowed.

            Against two passing offenses in the top half of I-A. Against three pass efficiency and rushing offenses in the top half.

            They've played some nice offenses, but nothing unreal.

            That's not to say that UGA's offense is any more than nice, but, well, the Dogs are 30th in rushing and passing offense yards, and ninth in pass efficiency.

            No, it's not been against overly bruising defenses: Sagarin has UF's schedule at No. 10 and UGA's at No. 65, which is a moderately legit. UF has played three consensus top 20 teams, Georgia one.

            And UF is 3-0, UGA 0-1.

            Still, abstracts allow one to reallly give Georgia plenty of chances.

            First, Florida struggled to beat Vandy, UGA didn't. The Tennessee wins were negligible: UGA got the Vols later after they had chances to improve.

            Second, Florida has been intercepted once in 134 attempts. Georgia has been intercepted five times in 206 tries. And the Dogs have 1,000 more passing yards. If Georgia's offensive coaches - hellooo, Mark Richt, author of the playbook and executive offensive coordinator - get it right, that will make a difference.           

             UF has eight picks in 250 attempts, and the Gators can give up some yards.

            But bad weather really hurts Georgia, unless the OLine just absolutely gets obscenely possessed, and Georgia's offensive coaches - hellooo, Mark Richt, author of the playbook and executive offensive coordinator - mix up the running game's variety of plays.

            Third, Florida can actually overlook Georgia. Not the coaches, who have spent every waking minute screaming not to, although in meetings they do probably giggle a little bit ("Damn, Kentucky almost beat 'em? That's kinda sad."). And fans will, including Georgia's. Florida players, being 18-24 years old, can easily think this is a very overrated No. 10/11 team that comes in struggling. Which is true, except for No. 4:

            Shawn Williams.

            Speculation that his tirade this week was really inspired/instructed by his coaching staff aside, Williams changed the tone of the week, drastically.

            While it dealt with UGA's horrid performance against Kentucky, it put Kentucky in the filing cabinet. It was about football, about manning up, about playing defense like an SEC contender.

            Unfortunately for Georgia, the program needs regular wakeup calls. Plenty like to blame the coaches and their leader, but honest to God, if a kid can't get fired up/pissed off on Saturday, that's on him. It's absurd to blame coaches all the time for a lack of self-motivation from players. When will people hold the friggin' players accountable for some damn thing?

            Nevertheless, Georgia spent the week talking about what Williams was talking about, not how the Dogs are limping into this game and Florida is storming in. Well, on paper, storming in.

            The world is waiting for the overhyped-for-the-second-straight-season Georgia defense to bow up for four quarters as well as play some remotely fundamental football. Without end Abry Jones, that becomes a little tougher.

            The weather hurts Georgia, which passes substantially more than Florida (yeah, reread that one a few times). Conversely, maybe UGA's O-line whips itself into a frenzy and decides it's going to own the line of scrimmage more than it has all season. That goes hand in hand with executive offensive coordinator and strategic meddler Mark Richt dumping 42 percent of his tendencies, which most of us are familiar with.

            Georgia saw what a good - or at least, a non-wretched - start is worth. USCE had a bad one, never came back. And that's the team that beat Georgia 35-7 two weeks earlier.

            Florida has had one blowout, 38-0 over Kentucky, and a quasi-blowout, last week. Otherwise, the Gators have been in fairly close games, in some cases taking late control. So they're not going to be rattled by any good Georgia start.

            But the Bulldogs need the confidence of at least a competent start, which does mean it'll play some possession and field position football early, drawing some boos. And then, as Georgia does, the Dogs come up with something funky that makes it interesting.

            That's the way they are: on the edge of being written off, and they pull off some "why the hell can't they do that more often?" action.

            Florida is a touchdown favorite, and that's justified. The Gators aren't pretty, but they're consistent. Georgia isn't.

            Two weeks ago, the call was Georgia. From last Saturday through Tuesday, it was an easy Florida call. Now, I feel like Mitt Kerry and John Romney: just not sure with butt cheeks will get splinters from the fence.

            Georgia is inspired. Florida is victorious, 31-24.

 

CALL THE BOOKIE REVIEW

            Virginia Tech getting 11 at Clemson: Yeah, that was fairly easy.

            Sure would like to see Clemson play Florida State again. So, no doubt, would Clemson.

            1-0.

            Auburn getting 6.5 at Vandy: The Commodores had it until a field goal with 9:55 left in the game. Couldn't manage one more score, huh?

            1-1

            Boston College getting 14.5 at Georgia Tech: It was closer than it should've been, but was the expected blowout.

            BC is not taking calls from the Patriot League.

            Jackets covered pretty easily, a phrase we haven't heard much of.

            2-1.

            N.C. State giving 4 at Maryland: And gambling info takes a hit, as Maryland is now 1-9 against the spread in last 10 home games.

            Dammit. State won by two.

            2-2.

            Kansas State getting 3 at West Virginia: Ouch. Not even close.

            Exactly what's the name of the cliff that WVU has fallen off? From national title contender and runaway Heisman favorite to consecutive losses - including one at home - by 35 and 41 points.

            Hell, Boston College hasn't even done that.

            2-3.

            So that's 14-16 for the season, some more painfully wrong than others.

            Don't touch: LSU giving 3 at Texas A&M (A&M had control, fumbled it away and LSU still doing just enough); USCE getting 3.5 at Florida (so much for picking USCE during their Santa tour; nobody had the Cocks and 30); Pittsburgh giving 9.5 at Buffalo (Pitt won 20-6, two field goals and two touchdowns, nothing in the fourth); UGA giving 25.5 at Kentucky (the Dogs remain confusing).

 

CALL THE BOOKIE THIS WEEK

            Mississippi getting 6.5 at Arkansas: The Hogs have won two straight over two bad teams, Auburn and Kentucky. This team still lost by 48 to A&M and 10 to Rutgers.

            Ole Miss should have beaten A&M and was mighty competitive with Alabama.

            Neither team is in the race, and the Hogs are revived, a chance to finally get back to .500 after the embarrassing start.

            The Rebels are a little hungrier, and get a late field goal to cover.

            UAB giving 5 at Tulane: OK, yeah, two 1-6 teams battling it out in a game that where the crowd would fit at Henderson.

            Tulane hasn't been competitive, UAB has.

            UAB covers, maybe by double figures.

            Ohio State giving 1 at Penn State: In Vegas terms, Ohio State is 3-5 and Penn State 6-1 ATS (against the spread).

            The Nittany Lions are so close to being undefeated and the Buckeyes are so close to being 4-4.

            Take Penn State, especially at home, in what's just about a bowl game.

            UMass getting 33 at Vandy: I was sprinting away from this one - Vandy that big a favorite against anybody, and coming off of a win? - at first.

            Hangover city for the Dores.

            Neither is a good bet much, 2-5 and 3-4 ATS, but Vandy is playing for bowl eligibility and some momentum, and under James Franklin, should come out with non-Vandy-like intensity even as a favorite.

            Vandy covers, but it will have to be sweated out.

            South Alabama getting 23 at Louisiana-Monroe: USA is a young program taking lumps, ULM is giving out some lumps this season.

            The Warhawks have been a good bet, 7-1 in the last eight games ATS. Good enough for me.

            ULM covers, and with some cushion.

            Don't touch: obviously, Florida-Georgia (it almost feels like a trap game); Missouri giving Kentucky 15 (UK may have some juice from near-win last week against UGA); Maryland getting 2 at Boston College (wow: wretched BC favored anywhere, and over a team that's 4-3? Note that BC is 1-6 against the spread); Duke getting 27 at Florida State (hmm, road team is 7-1 against the spread in this series, FSU is 2-5 this season and Duke 6-2; yeah, trap).

 

QUOTABLE

            "LSU's Tyran Mathieu —­ aka the Honey Badger — has been arrested again for marijuana. It's a good thing this guy didn't win the Heisman Trophy. He would have converted it into a massive Chinese water hookah."

            - Mike Bianchi, Orlando Sentinel