Auburn-Florida State: who wins?

            I like Jameis Winston.

            The hammering of Clemson was impressive.

            The offensive line is money. Nick O’Leary is one of those pesky playmakers that nobody looks at until they’re chasing him.

            Florida State has often looked like a video game, dominant on both sides and choking the football life out of most opponents with nary a hiccup.

            But I can’t stop not thinking it’s Auburn.

            I know.

            The line ranges from 9 to 10.5 points, and that’s a good chunk in the gambling world. Tis why I don’t bet. One needs only a couple feet to get a touchdown and field goal.

            Sure, Winston is explosive, handled the late-season legal issue with calm. But how many tests has he faced? How many comebacks has he had to lead?

            Therein is the difference: The difference is the competition.

            Yes, one plays who one plays. Can’t change your conference schedule, can’t change rival games, can’t predict when a normally decent team is bad and vice versa.

            You take the conference schedules for good and bad, and how it all adds up.

            And that’s why I can’t stop not thinking it’s Auburn.

The ACC has been less than stellar for awhile. Remember: Florida State came in and dominated it for years. That’s not the sign of a strong conference.

            It remains top-heavy, with a usually middlin’ middle and pretty bad bottom.

            This year epitomized that. Florida State and Clemson were really good, Duke was nice, Miami decent, and the rest were treading water or sinking.

            Florida State’s opponents just aren’t much to worry about. Fact is, there are a number of teams that could have come close to FSU’s numbers against that schedule.

            Take Clemson.

            The Tigers compare mighty favorably statistically with the Seminoles, and certainly any rematch would bear no resemblance to the first game, which nobody saw coming.

            Clemson also had a tougher schedule than Florida State, opening the season with a healthy and higher-ranked Georgia, and ending it with South Carolina. There were, though, two FCS teams, one of which went to the playoffs.

            Florida State had one FCS opponent and one in transition from FCS to FBS.

            The Tigers’ and Seminoles’ season-end non-conference rivals were quite different. South Carolina beat Clemson while FSU handled a bad Florida team.

            FSU played four teams that went 7-6, three that went 4-8. Clemson finished 11-2, Duke 10-4 and Miami 9-4.

            Duke and Miami lost bowl games, as did two other bowl teams on the schedule (Boston College and Maryland). Pitt and Syracuse joined Clemson as bowl winners (but the first two were among the 7-6 teams).

            Auburn played nine bowl teams, and they went 6-3 with the losses by 22 points. FSU played seven that went 3-4, with losses of 27, 23, 11 and seven.

            All that’s open for debate.

            Then more specifically, Florida State played seven rush offenses in the bottom half nationally in Division I.

            Auburn is No. 1 running the ball, and played against five rush defenses in the top half nationally.

            All of that is some contrast.

            There’ll be some feeling out for half of the first quarter, and then strategy starts kicking in, and that’ll be mighty fun to watch, since both teams offer different things to deal with.

            But it comes down to one thing, from this vantage point.

            Florida State hasn’t had to play many four-quarter games. The Seminoles have had six wins pretty much over by halftime. We’re not including the FCS opponents for either FSU or Auburn.

            Auburn knows about trailing on the road, and about trailing at home. Washington State led at halftime and Mississippi State in the third quarter on the Plains, and Auburn was behind at Johnny Football’s house.

            And we know, of course, about the Georgia and Alabama games.

            What happens when it goes into the fourth quarter? When Florida State suffers an injury or two from facing a strong and fast defense after a month off and not a quality challenge in months?

            College athletes have arrogance, whether it’s well-hidden or not. And a team that has simply rolled the opposition will have it, especially when looking at a one-loss team, won that barely beat Washington State, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Texas A&M and Georgia.

            Florida State was flashier, but again, against a softer schedule.

            And there’s where Auburn’s potential for overconfidence is. FSU beat mostly .500 teams, did smack around a really good Clemson team and a decent Duke and decent Miami team.

            Teamrankings.com puts Auburn’s strength of schedule at sixth and FSU’s at 39 and that doesn’t seem far off.

            The coaching is probably even, although one had to give a few more props to Auburn for turning things around so quickly and getting players on pretty much one page.

            Swagger is certainly even. Jimbo Fisher's tirade about destiny and the SEC and all that is absurd. Those who know have the Seminoles a double-digit favorite. Don't give me that "respect" crap.

            Here's the thing: Nick Marshall's passing.

            Saw Marshall play a half-dozen or so times in high school. He's a passing quarterback. Owns the state touchdown passes record with 103. Is 10th in career yardage with 8,043, a good chunk ahead of the likes of Fabian Walker, Hutson Mason, Barrett Wilkes, Buck Belue, A.J. Bryant and Mike Bobo.

            Scrambled for eight seconds - there have been exaggerations - in the state title game to throw a 2-yard touchdown pass on the run in traffic. Here it is.

             With a month to tweak, don't be a bit surprised to see Auburn expand the passing game against Florida State. Marshall is more than capable - wait till next year - but the passing game hasn't been prioritized in this transition season.

            If he is patient and smart - yup, hold your breath - then he can break Florida State's heart with his arm just when they're ready for him running.

            Still, the schedule, handling pressure and being used to trailing and having the bonus of conditioning of many more four-quarter games is why the pick here is Auburn, 35-31.

            The defenses will be tuckered out.