10:15 p.m. Tuesday update:
All
accounts are Kirby Smart has the job. Not that this is a moot topic, because a
hire is a forever topic.
Warning:
have full beverage or plate in front. This will take awhile.
Having dealt with coaching
searches on the high school and college level for decades, and watching what
tends to work and not work for decades, and having a grip on reality and
objectivity, the AD in me has certain things I just about have to have to consider
somebody.
First is that a guy has to have
been at one job location for at least five years. At least. Seven is about
perfect.
That gives you a chance to
adequately gauge somebody's ability to recruit, manage his portion of a roster,
develop players, and coach on Saturday with what he and the other assistants
brought in.
Way too many popular
"hot" coaches don't have that. Ditto going after a head coach after
one or two big seasons at a lower-level school. I have to see that success
isn't a fluke, or a byproduct of the previous regime's work.
Second is head coaching
experience on almost any level.
While that job in the SEC doesn't
compare to lower-level I-A, or I-AA, etc., being in charge is being in charge,
and somebody who has had to deal with the other head coaching duties - hiring a
staff, working with other departments within the athletics department, doing
budgets, dealing with the media, dealing with boosters, dealing with academics
and sitting in the seat where the buck stops - has a serious advantage over
anybody who doesn't.
Third is if there's been any
whiff of NCAA issues, or of a reputation of almost having NCAA issues.
Cleanliness is important. In the SEC, it's almost as important as the perception
of cleanliness.
Fourth is an abstract: the fit.
Not everybody fits in at every
school, even though about 25 jobs are basically the same when it comes to
money, facilities and delusional fan bases. How will a guy work with, say, an
expanded booster club circuit and increased media duties? Is he a little schizophrenic,
and goes off when he doesn't get his way or misreads a situation?
One doesn't have to be an
attention-seeker or chatterbox, but decent communication skills outside of the
football meeting room are mighty important.
Sure, one makes exceptions on gut
feelings, or when a candidate is overwhelmingly qualified in one area but
underqualified in another. One may not have head coaching experience, but was
delegated many responsibilities by his head coach, perhaps was an associate
head coach for a few years.
But there are a variety of things
that more often than not, lessen the gamble within the gamble.
The coaching searches also
elevate the level of delusion to staggering, which considering the general
topic and constituents, says something. The speculation staggers with farces
and myths (and I know I'm leaving some out).
Farce/myth No. 1: Hey, he
grew up/played/worked/lived/flew over here.
Nick Saban is from West Virginia,
went to college in Ohio. Jimbo Fisher is from West Virginia, went to Samford.
Les Miles is from Ohio, played at Michigan.
Of the past national championship
coaches since 2000, only Meyer, Tressel and Fulmer can be considered somewhat
home grown. Neither Meyer nor Tressel attended Ohio State at all, and Fulmer
got shoved out (after helping Johnny Majors get shoved out). Of the group, only
Fisher, Coker, Fulmer and Chizik coached at their school before taking over.
Mike Shula played at Alabama. Ray
Goff played at Georgia. Randy Shannon played at Miami. Dave Wannstedt played at
Pitt.
Mercer's Bobby
Lamb played at Furman, was grad
assistant at Furman, an assistant at Furman and then head coach at Furman.
Fired with a 68-40 record.
Whaaaa? He was "one of ours" and didn't "succeed"?
On the other hand, Brian Kelly
went to Assumption College. Larry Fedora? Austin College. New Virginia Tech boss Justin Fuente went to
Murray State. Southern Arkansas turned out Tommy Tuberville. Jimbo Fisher?
Salem College and Samford.
Hey, Kent State produced Nick
Saban and Gary Pinkel, to name two.
Farce/myth No. 2: Has to know the
SEC.
What's to know? It's like a
non-Southerner running for president and working the south. Throw out a version
of the stereotypes - cheesy grits, barbque, beer, NASCAR, Herschel, Bo,
Spurrier, the Fridge, Bear, Red Man and Smith and Wesson or MLK - and you're
in. Throw in a "y'all" and "fixin'", if you're not from the
South, and it's icing.
Talent is talent. Recruiting is
recruiting. Find the players that fit what you want to run, or adjust what you
want to run based on the talent you see and get.
It's not a complex subject.
Saban didn't have a lick of SEC
air when he took over at LSU. Was 0-1 against his lone SEC opponent, LSU.
Ditto Meyer at Florida. In his
previous fourrrr seasons as a head coach - at Bowling Green and Utah - before
going to Florida, Meyer hadn't coached against an SEC team.
Les Miles? 0-1 vs. the SEC while
at Oklahoma State.
Ron Zook had been around the SEC.
Ditto Goff. Ditto Chizik. Ditto Shula.
Can you adjust? Can you be
flexible? Can you suck up a bit? Can you coach maybe more physical talent than
you've been around? Can you deal with a region not known for academic
priorities?
Are you willing to listen to
people to get smarter? Can you change something you haven't changed in a
decade? Can you delegate?
Farce/myth No. 3: "We have
to make a change/we can't make a change because of recruiting."
Oy.
See, everything affects recruiting.
We're talking about 17-year-olds, we're talking about parents. We're talking
about a very abtract process.
The mind of a 17-year-old
sports-playing male changes as often as, well, his reaction to seeing a hot
17-year-old girl. OK, just seeing a 17-year-old girl. Or being near a
17-year-old girl. Parents aren't much better.
If this holds a school back - and
fortunately, what fans come up with generally doesn't - then the school will be
looking again soon enough.
Every good and smart decision
takes a little time. Very little is accomplished by making a decision based on
a clock or calendar.
Recruits will always be there.
There's a line. Every position. Every region of the country.
The key is finding the right head
coach who will hire the right assistant coaches to coach those young 'ns who
are substantially interchangable.
Farce/myth 4: We have to do
something immediately/how could they fire somebody without a plan?
Really? You think a school
doesn't have a plan? They just wake up grumpy and say, "Eh, screw it,
let's do something."
Admininstrators start compiling a
list within six months of every hire. When it gets down to nut-cuttin' time,
conversations are had. Rare is the surprise, unless somebody just changes their
mind.
Sure, early is better than late,
but not as much as right is better than early. Better to be late and right than
early and wrong. Open the mind, explore possibilities. The obvious may not be
correct.
Recruiting is such a general mess
on a good day. Showing stability in the hiring process is wiser to calm down
recruiting.
Will Muschamp was hired three
days after Urban Meyer resigned. Lane Kiffin was hired at Tennessee on Dec. 1,
2008.
Nick Saban was a mere mortal when
he took the Alabama job in early January of 2007, more than two weeks after
saying he wasn't going to take the Alabama job.
Mark Richt was hired after
Christmas. He was the second choice after Glen Mason.
Recent events notwithstanding,
that turned out pretty good.
Farce/myth No. 5: Jon Gruden.
It takes great strength
to not call anybody who throws his name out "idiot, you're making your
team embarrassed, stop."
Holy crap.
For one, first and foremost, he's
got a great, great gig. He's had it now for, well, it matches the longest job
he's ever had.
That was seven years with Tampa
Bay, where he got fired.
He's not getting fired here.
He makes big money, and everybody
is about money except when money is suddenly evil. He gets to play coach by
looking at film all the time and talking to coaches and players. He gets to
travel.
And he won't be fired for having
a rough night.
Has he ever looked unhappy in
this job? No.
For another, he's not really that
good a coach and hasn't been anywhere long enough to prove otherwise.
He has six seasons over .500,
three seasons under .500, and two seasons right at .500. Made the playoffs four
times, didn't make the playoffs six times.
For another, he's shown no job
stability: one year at Southeast missouri State, then Pacicin, then the 49ers,
then Pitt.
Three years with Green Bay, three
years with the Eagles, four years with Oakland and then seven with Tampa Bay.
For another, he has basically no
college experience. The little he did have was last in 1991, wideouts coach at
Pitt. Two years after Pacific, which dropped football about six years later.
Farce/myth 6: He must have
_______.
Pete Carroll is a notable example
of a variety of things that show what a crapshoot it is.
He was a twice-fired NFL head
coach whose college background was mostly the midwest and ACC (not sure how
much you value being a grad assistant and one-year defensive coordinator at
now-defunct Pacific as West Coast experience).
And Carroll went 83-19 at
Southern Cal, which not a soul every could've predicted.
Nobody knows who will succeed, to
what level and for how long, and who won't.
Apparently,
74 percent winning percentage and a high level of respect is kind of mixed.
And the clear-visioned can see
the warts in any candidate. So, let's go.
Kirby Smart
Played at Georgia: not relevant,
see above.
From Bainbridge: not relevant,
see above.
Has been on the staffs of nothing
but successful teams at Valdosta State, Florida State (grad assistant) , LSU
and Georgia - well, there was that one year with the Dolphins - and then
Alabama: relevant.
He has coached more than just
Alabama's defense, like backs at Georgia: relevant.
Has yet to truly establish
himself, at least to outsiders: relevant.
WHAAAAAT?
The same people who said Mike
Bobo didn't have broad enough experience overlook the same in Smart.
The reality is that it's just
really hard to say how good a coach Smart is, since Nick Saban is the executive
defensive coordinator, much like Richt was the executive offensive coordinator
over Bobo. We'd never know about Bobo until he could coordinate an offense from
a different playbook than Richt's, or formulate an independent offensive philosophy
away from Richt.
Saban has a whole lot more
influence on how Alabama runs its defense than Richt did in Georgia's offense.
To underestimate Saban's defensive influence is a huge mistake.
That said, yes, Smart has learned
from the best. Of course, Todd Grantham coached under Saban at Michigan State.
That got him some nice jobs, too.
Saban has huge, obsessive
influence in every single area of that program, so it's a guess to say how good
anybody underneath him can be on their own.
Saban keeps things so tight,
Smart likely lacks a lot of the experience many coordinators get that help
prepare them for head coaching responsibilities. That's not to say Smart
doesn't have those skills, but he certainly hasn't gotten a chance to polish
them.
The connection to Will Muschamp
is disconcerting, as is the rumor that they had an agreement that one would
bring the other when they got a head coaching job. Smart's gig was too good to
leave for the same job at Florida.
But Muschamp's apparently
instability on the sidelines - come on, there's a difference between intensity
and losing your mind - is fairly absurd, and who wants that as an image of your
program?
Too, just because Muschamp went
to Georgia doesn't mean he's actually been a great defensive coordinator.
Again, there's no proof that he can recruit over a period of time, develop
players over a period of time and establish a solid defense. He's never been a
defensive coordinator anywhere for more than three seasons.
That's an incomplete gauge for a
body of work, a different version of Smart's gauge. But Smart is sure a better
candidate than Muschamp. Bringing him along? Not wise.
Nevertheless, all I see when I
see Smart is Saban five feet away and yelling at the defense just as hard. It's
awful hard, from an objective seat on the outside, where defensive players look
first on the Bama sideline.
Hope he's ready for the pressure, because his predecessor got fired winning 74 percent of the games. Next guy better be in Atlanta by second year.
Dan Mullen
Gut feeling says he'd be the best
candidate on the list, covering all bases.
Successful head coach in a tough
place to be a successful head coach. Seems to be pretty personable.
His background is pretty broad,
with years as a grad assistant at Syracuse and Notre Dame, then several years
with Urban Meyer before taking over at Mississippi State and going 54-35.
He's developed quarterbacks
fairly well, something lacking at times at Georgia under Richt.
Mullen is 54-35 overall, 26-30 in
the SEC while competing in the West, and 3-2 in bowl games. Has been in East,
doesn't seem to have a film from working under Urban Meyer, and wants the job.
He also wants Miami. OK, pretty
much any good job without Stark or Ville in the name.
Ed Orgeron
Friend likes him for his work at
USC after Lane Kiffin got booted.
OK, so eight games is overshadows
his record at Mississippi and that the NCAA is always aware of where he's
coaching.
He may be one of those guys who's
a great assistant. Why is there something so wrong with that? But he's no fit
in Georgia.
Tim Herman
One year at Houston and he's the
guy?
Really?
Of course he wanted the job.
There are 32 jobs he wants, even with his nice raise at Houston. He'd like to
go somewhere where it's not, "You coach at Houston? Man, I love JJ
Watt."
Never take a hot coach who's been
hot for only a year. Doesn't make him a great coach. Having sex doesn't make
you a porn star.
Chip Kelly
No idea why folks are enamored
with him. not to say not good, but suddenly a West Coast guy is cherished by
people who think all conferences and most of the NFL is inferior to the
almighty SEC?
That's just funny.
Three years ago throughout the
SEC, and thus, Georgia: Pac-12 sucks.
Now: Can we get a former Pac-12
coach?
Oregon and the Pac-12 is a little
different than 'round these parts, and he built Oregon. Like Orgeron, this
doesn't really fit.
He's one of those if you like
him, you ignore that he's never come close to coaching farther South than
Philly. If you don't, you'd scream that a fact out.
There are other names, but that's enough silly for now.
The best thing about a coaching search
is, so very much, the end of it.
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